Forget the Price of the Home. The Cost is What Matters.
Home buying activity (demand) is up, and the number of available listings (supply) is down. When demand outpaces supply, prices appreciate. That’s why firms are beginning to increase their projections for home price appreciation going forward. As an example, CoreLogic increased their 12-month projection for home values from 4.5% to 5.6% over the last few months.
The reacceleration of home values will cause some to again voice concerns about affordability. Just last week, however, First American came out with a data analysis that explains how price is not the only market factor that impacts affordability. They studied prices, mortgage rates, and wages from January through August of this year. Here are their findings:
Home Prices
“In January 2019, a family with the median household income in the U.S. could afford to buy a $373,900 house. By August, that home had appreciated to $395,000, an increase of $21,100.”
Mortgage Interest Rates
“The 0.85 percentage point drop in mortgage rates from January 2019 through August 2019 increased affordability by 9.7%. That translates to a $40,200 improvement in house-buying power in just eight months.”
Wage Growth
“As rates have fallen in 2019, the economy has continued to perform well also, resulting in a tight labor market and wage growth. Wage growth pushes household incomes upward, which were 1.5% higher in August compared with January. The growth in household income increased consumer house-buying power by 1.5%, pushing house-buying power up an additional $5,600.”
When all three market factors are combined, purchasing power increased by $24,500, thus making home buying more affordable, not less affordable. Here is a table that simply shows the data:
Bottom Line
In the article, Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explained it best:
“Focusing on nominal house price changes alone as an indication of changing affordability, or even the relationship between nominal house price growth and income growth, overlooks what matters more to potential buyers – surging house-buying power driven by the dynamic duo of mortgage rates and income growth. And, we all know from experience, you buy what you can afford to pay per month.”
About the Author
Sandy Malbrue
Hi, I'm Sandy Malbrue and I'd love to assist you. Whether you're in the research phase at the beginning of your real estate search for representation or you know exactly what you're looking for, you'll benefit from having a real estate professional by your side. I'd be honored to put my 14 years real estate experience to work for you. Be it to gain wide exposure for your home with my marketing plan, negotiate offers or manage the transaction once you've accepted an offer, in a way that will get you the best price and cause the least amount of disruption to you life as possible.
If you are a buyer, allow me put those skills to work for you to help with the pre-approval process, work with you to locate and arrange for you to view homes of interest to you , and negotiate your offer. Once you have an accepted offer, I will help you arrange inspections, I will manage the transaction for you, from helping to arrange for inspections to keeping you up to date on contingency removals and walking you through the process to a new set of keys.
Let's do this!